Best Bets 10/5/2023
College Football -Week 6
NFL- Week 5
By Rob Fischer (Host of a weekly Podcast, The Odds Couple, LIVE every Thursday at 2pm on the GrindCityMedia App, GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel, and GrindCityMedia.com )
Each week we’ll handicap all the SEC action, plus give you the Top 5 College Picks along with the Top 5 NFL Picks
SEC 35-9
SU 21-23
ATS 21-23
OU / College Football Top 5 (16-14) / NFL Top 5 (13-7)
Here we go with Week Six ……
Mississippi State -20.5 vs. Western Michigan (57.5)
MSU: 0-4ATS this season
MSU: 2-8ATS last 10 on a Saturday
MSU: 6-14ATS Last 20 at home
MSU: 5-10ATS Last 15 in October
MSU: 15 of last 20 in October- Under
MSU: 7 of 12 at home- Under
WMU: 5-2ATS last 7 games
WMU: 8 of last 11- Under (5 of 7 on the road- Under)
Pick: SU- Mississippi State 31-21 / ATS- Western Michigan / OU- Under
LSU -6.5 @ Missouri (63.5)
LSU: 14-10ATS last 24 on the road
LSU: 10-2ATS after allowing 40+ points
LSU: 13-6ATS following a loss (12-5ATS following ATS loss)
LSU: 7 of last 8 vs. SEC East- Over
LSU: 12 of last 13- Over (All 4 games this season- Over)
MIZ: 14-20ATS last 34 vs. SEC opponents
MIZ: 9-14ATS vs. winning teams
MIZ: 8-28SU last 36 as an underdog
MIZ: 7 of last 9- Over (3 of 4 this season- Over)
Pick: SU- LSU 38-31 / ATS- LSU / OU- Over
Alabama -2.5 @ Texas A&M (49.5)
ALA: Nick Saban is 29-3SU vs. his former assistants (5-1 vs. Jimbo Fisher)
ALA: 3-8ATS last 11 on the road
ALA: 3-14ATS last 17 played in Week 6
ALA: 5 of last 7- Over
TXAM: 5-1ATS last 6 games
TXAM: 24-12ATS last 36 at home (covered 4 of 5)
TXAM: 10-5ATS vs. winning teams
TXAM: 16-9ATS at home vs. Top 25 (won 8 of 11)
TXAM: Last 8 as a Home dog- Over
H2H: TXAM 4-2ATS last 6 meetings (covered last 2)
H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings- Over
H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings at TXAM- Over
Pick: SU- Texas A&M 27-24 / ATS- Texas A&M / OU- Over
Florida -18 vs. Vanderbilt (53.5)
FLA: 1-5ATS Last 6 (1-3ATS this season)
FLA: 6-15ATS last 21 games
FLA: 3-9ATS last 12 at home
FLA: 2-10ATS last 12 vs. losing teams
FLA: 3-18ATS last 21 as a favorite
FLA: 5 of last 7 at home- Under
FLA: 13 of last 17 vs. SEC East- Under
FLA: 10 of last 13 as a favorite- Under
VAN: 7-4ATS last 11 on the road
VAN: 7-5ATS last 12 vs. SEC East
VAN: 24 of last 38 vs. SEC- Under
VAN: 15 of last 21 on the road- Under
H2H: Road Team is 9-6ATS last 15 meetings
Pick: SU- Florida 31-21 / ATS- Vanderbilt / OU- Under
Georgia -14.5 vs. Kentucky (47.5)
UGA: 1-3ATS this season (1-5-1ATS last 7)
UGA: 0-4-1ATS last 5 home games
UGA: 30-52ATS at home following a conference win
UGA: 10 of last 14 at home- Under
UK: 14-5ATS Last 19 (4-0ATS this season)
UK: 5-1ATS last 6 on the road
UK: 11-3ATS on road vs. teams with a winning home record
UK: 23-7ATS last 30 vs. winning teams
UK: 15 of last 19- Under
UK: 11 of last 12 as a road dog- Under
H2H: UGA has won 13 straight in series
H2H: UK 4-1ATS last 5 meetings
H2H: Last 4 meetings- Under
Pick: SU- Georgia 27-20 / ATS- Kentucky / OU- Under
Ole Miss -11.5 vs. Arkansas (62.5)
OM: 16-26-1ATS last 43 vs. SEC opponents
OM: 8 of last 11- Over (4 of 5 at home- Over)
OM: 4 of last 5 in October- Over
ARK: 18-7ATS last 25 as an underdog
ARK: 10-3-1ATS last 14 on the road
ARK: 4-1ATS last 5 vs. SEC West
ARK: 9-3ATS last 12 as a road dog
ARK: 12-7ATS following a loss
ARK: 7 of last 8 games- Over
ARK: 12 of last 16 vs. SEC opponents- Over
H2H: ARK 9-1ATS last 10 meetings (4-1ATS @ OM)
H2H: Underdog is 11-1ATS last 12 meetings
H2H: 4 of last 5 at Ole Miss- Over
Pick: SU- Ole Miss 34-31 / ATS- Arkansas / OU- Over
Top 5 College Picks
1- Arkansas +11.5 @ Ole Miss
2- Notre Dame ML @ Louisville
3- Colorado -4 @ Arizona State
4- Vanderbilt +18.5 @ Florida
5- Oregon State -9.5 @ California
Top 5 NFL Picks
1- Falcons -1 vs. Texans
2- 49ers -3.5 vs. Dallas
3- Commanders -6.5 vs. Bears
4- Broncos -2.5 vs. Jets
5- Chiefs -5.5 @ Vikings
There you have it for Week Six. For more trends, notes and Nuggets on the SEC, College Football, and the NFL , check out my podcast- The Odds Couple on the GrindCityMedia App and GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel LIVE every Thursday at 2pm. Or you can listen to the podcast and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. You can follow me on Twitter @thefishnation, on Instagram @thefishnation_, and on Facebook. You can also email me with any comments or questions at rfischer@grizzlies.com.
Enjoy the weekend!
