Best Bets 9/27/2023

College Football -Week 5

NFL- Week 4

By Rob Fischer (Host of a weekly Podcast, The Odds Couple, LIVE every Thursday at 2pm on the GrindCityMedia App, GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel, and GrindCityMedia.com )

Each week we’ll handicap all the SEC action, plus give you the Top 5 College Picks along with the Top 5 NFL Picks

SEC 29-8

SU 17-20

ATS 17-20

OU / College Football Top 5 (12-13) / NFL Top 5 (9-6)

Here we go with Week Five ……

Texas A&M -6.5 vs. Arkansas (55.5)

            TXAM: 14-4SU in neutral site

            TXAM: 3 of 4 this year- Over

            TXAM: 2-13ATS last 15 in Week 5

            ARK: 26-13ATS Last 39 (13-6ATS vs. SEC West opponents)

            ARK: 18-6ATS as an underdog

            ARK: 12-6ATS following a loss

            ARK: 5-1ATS at a neutral site

            ARK: 13 of last 17- Over

            H2H: 8 of last 11 decided by 7 or fewer points

            H2H: TXAM won 10 of last 11 meetings (3 in overtime)

            H2H: ARK has covered last 5 meetings (underdog in all 5)

            Pick: SU- Texas A&M 31-28 / ATS- Arkansas / OU- Over

Kentucky -2.5 vs. Florida (45.5)

            UK: 19-8ATS last 27 Games (3-0ATS this season)

            UK: 12-6ATS last 18 vs. SEC

            UK: 21-6ATS at home last 27

            UK: 20-11ATS last 31 as a favorite

            FLA: 11-21-1ATS last 33 (3-10ATS on the road)

            FLA: 5-8ATS last 13 vs. SEC

            FLA: 15 of last 23 on road- Over

            FLA: 15 of last 22 as an underdog- Over

            H2H: UK 5-0ATS last 5 meetings

            H2H: favorite is 10-6ATS last 16 meetings

            Pick: SU- Kentucky 31-21 / ATS- Kentucky / OU- Over

Georgia -14.5 @ Auburn (46.5)

            UGA: 26-18ATS as a favorite

            UGA: 22-7ATS last 29 on road (19-7ATS on road vs. SEC)

            UGA: 32-15ATS vs. winning teams

            AUB: 8-12ATS Last 20 (5-6ATS at Home)

            AUB: 10-15ATS as an underdog

            AUB: 11 of 16- Under as a home dog

            H2H: 8 of last 10 meetings- Under

            H2H: UGA covered last 6 meetings

            Pick: SU- Georgia 34-10 / ATS- Georgia / OU- Under

Missouri -13.5 @ Vanderbilt (55.5)

            MIZ: 12-7ATS last 19

            MIZ: 6-4ATS vs. SEC East

            MIZ: 8 of 10 vs. SEC- Under

            MIZ: 13 of 19- Under (14 of 20 on road- Under)

            VAN: 0-4ATS this season

            VAN: 7-23ATS last 30 at home (5-20ATS as a home dog)

            VAN: 3-13ATS last 16 in September

            VAN: 24 of 37 vs. SEC- Under

            H2H: 8 of last 9- Under

            Pick: SU- Missouri 31-17 / ATS- Missouri / OU- Under

LSU -3 @ Ole Miss (65.5)

            LSU: 14-9ATS last 23 on the road

            LSU: 12-4ATS following an ATS loss

            LSU: All 3 games this season- Over

            MISS: 8-17-1ATS as an underdog

            MISS: 15-26-1ATS vs. SEC opponents

            MISS: 7 of last 10- Over

            H2H: LSU 6-2-1ATS last 9 meetings

            H2H: favorite is 6-2ATS last 8 meetings

            H2H: 6 of last 7 meetings- Over

            Pick: SU- LSU 41-35 / ATS- LSU / OU- Over

Tennessee -12.5 vs. South Carolina (63.5)

            UT: 9-3ATS last 12

            UT: 14 of last 21- Over

            UT: 12 of 14 at home- Over

            SC: 3-10-1ATS last 14 following an ATS win

            SC: 5-9ATS following a win

            SC: 9-15ATS last 24 vs. SEC

            SC: 9-16ATS as an underdog

            SC: 12 of 16 on road- Over (10 of 13 as road dog- Over)

            H2H: Last 4 meetings- Over (Last 2 @ UT- over)

            H2H: Underdog has covered 10 of last 13 meetings

            Pick: SU- Tennessee 41-24 / ATS- Tennessee / OU- Over

Alabama -14 @ Mississippi State (46.5)

            ALA: 35-29ATS as a double digit favorite vs. SEC opponents

            ALA: 10-4ATS last 14 in Week 5

            MSU: 1-8ATS as a home dog

            MSU: 6-13ATS last 19 at home

            MSU: 22 of last 37- Under (7 of 11 at home- Under)

            H2H: ALA has won 15 straight meetings (MSU- 7.7ppg)

            H2H: ALA 7-1ATS Last 8 meetings (covered last 5)

            H2H: 13 of last 16 meetings- Under

            Pick: SU- Alabama 31-10 / ATS- Alabama / OU- Under

Top 5 College Picks

1- USC -21.5 @ Colorado

2- Arkansas State @ Massachusetts Under 55

3- Boise State +3.5 @ Memphis

4- Oregon -27 @ Stanford

5- Alabama -14.5 @ Mississippi State

Top 5 NFL Picks

1- Packers +1.5 vs. Lions

2- Bills -2.5 vs. Dolphins

3- 49ers -14 vs. Cardinals

4- Ravens +2.5 @ Browns

5- Cowboys -7 vs. Patriots

There you have it for Week Five. For more trends, notes and Nuggets on the SEC, College Football, and the NFL , check out my podcast- The Odds Couple on the GrindCityMedia App and GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel LIVE every Thursday at 2pm. Or you can listen to the podcast and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. You can follow me on Twitter @thefishnation, on Instagram @thefishnation_, and on Facebook. You can also email me with any comments or questions at rfischer@grizzlies.com.

Enjoy the weekend!