Best Bets 11/16/2023
NCAA Week 12
NFL Week 11
By Rob Fischer (Host of a weekly Podcast, The Odds Couple, LIVE every Thursday at 2pm on the GrindCityMedia App, GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel, and GrindCityMedia.com)
Each week we’ll handicap all the SEC action, plus give you the Top 5 College Picks along with the Top 5 NFL Picks
Year to Date:
SEC 64-17
SU 45-36
ATS 43-38
OU
College Football Top 5 (33-27)
NFL Top 5 (33-17)
Here we go with Week Twelve ……
Mississippi State -14 vs. Southern Miss (46.5)
MSU: 9-3ATS at home when total between 42.5-49
MSU: 8-3ATS last 11 in Week 12 (10-7ATS in November)
MSU: 10 of last 13 at home- Over
USM: 1-4ATS last 5 vs. SEC opponents
USM: 2-5ATS last 7 played on Saturday
USM: 12 of last 16- Over
Pick: SU- Mississippi State 34-13 / ATS- Mississippi State / OU- Over
Ole Miss -37 vs. Louisiana Monroe (61.5)
OM: 0-5-1ATS last 6 in Week 12
OM: 34-1-2SU vs. Sun Belt opponents (lost 10/1/1915)
OM: 10 of last 16- Over
OM: 8 of last 10 vs. Sun Belt opponents- Over
ULM: 5 of last 7- Over
Pick: SU- Ole Miss 48-14 / ATS- Louisiana Monroe / OU- Over
Georgia -10 @ Tennessee (58.5)
UGA: 22-9ATS on the road (19-9ATS on the road vs. SEC)
UGA: 35-17ATS vs. winning teams
UGA: 6 of last 7- Over
UT: 4-11ATS as an underdog
UT: 2-14SU vs. #1 (last win- 1985 vs. Auburn)
UT: 18 of 27- Over (14 of 17 at home- Over)
H2H: UGA 6-1ATS last 7 meetings
H2H: 8 of last 11 meetings- Over (4 of 5 at UT- Over)
Pick: SU- Georgia 41-20 / ATS- Georgia / OU- Over
Auburn -24 vs. New Mexico State (48.5)
AUB: 5-2ATS last 7 games (5-2ATS last 7 at home)
AUB: 6-2ATS last 8 vs. Independent programs
AUB: 13-6ATS as a home favorite
AUB: 15 of 20 following a SU win- Under
AUB: 15 of 19 as a favorite- Under
NMST: 1-4ATS last 5 vs. SEC opponents (4-11ATS last 15 vs. SEC)
NMST: 4 of last 5- Under (5 of last 6 on the road- Under)
Pick: SU- Auburn 34-7 / ATS- Auburn / OU- Under
Arkansas -29.5 vs. Florida International (49.5)
ARK: 4-10ATS last 14 at home
ARK: 11-21-1ATS as a favorite
ARK: 8-14-2ATS vs. NonConference opponents
FIU: 4 of 6 road games- Under
Pick: SU- Arkansas 34-7 / ATS- Florida International / OU- Under
Missouri -11.5 vs. Florida (58.5)
MIZ: 11-3ATS vs. SEC East opponents
MIZ: 23-15ATS at Home on Saturday
MIZ: 7-1ATS last 8 games
MIZ: 20 of 33 at home- Under
MIZ: 9 of 12 vs. SEC East opponents- Under
FLA: 3-8ATS last 11 games
FLA: 4-12ATS last 16 on the road
FLA: 7-12ATS vs. SEC opponents
FLA: 14 of 20 vs. SEC East- Under
H2H: Last 6 Meetings- Under (4 of 5 @ MIZ- Under)
H2H: MIZ 7-4ATS last 11 meetings (favorite is 5-3ATS last 8)
Pick: SU- Missouri 34-17 / ATS- Missouri / OU- Under
Kentucky -1.5 @ South Carolina (54.5)
UK: 21-12ATS last 33 (6-2ATS last 8 on the road)
UK: 12-4ATS on the road vs. team with a winning home record
UK: 22-12ATS as a favorite
UK: 19 of last 26 on the road- Under
UK: 15 of last 23- Under
SC: 6-10ATS last 16 vs. SEC East
SC: 7-12ATS vs. winning teams
SC: 3-12-1ATS following an ATS win
SC: 14 of 24 at home- Under
H2H: UK 8-2ATS last 10 meetings (4-1ATS @ SC)
H2H: 7 of last 8 meetings- Under (4 of 5 @ SC- Under)
Pick: SU- Kentucky 27-17 / ATS- Kentucky / OU- Under
LSU -31 vs. Georgia State (71.5)
LSU: 6-7ATS vs. NonConference opponents at home
LSU: 37-1SU vs. Sun Belt opponents
LSU: Last 14 games- Over
GSU: 12-3ATS on the road (10-1ATS on Saturday on the road)
GSU: 10-4ATS last 14 on a Saturday
GSU: 4-1ATS last 5 vs. SEC opponents
GSU: 5 of last 7 road games- Over
Pick: SU- LSU 52-24 / ATS- Georgia State / OU- Over
Top 5 College Picks
1- Georgia -10 @ Tennessee
2- Florida International +29.5 @ Arkansas
3- Kansas State -8 @ Kansas
4- SMU @ Memphis- Over 67
5- Washington +2.5 @ Oregon State
Top 5 NFL Picks
1- Jaguars -6.5 vs. Titans
2- Dolphins -12 vs. Raiders
3- Bills -7 vs. Jets
4- Chiefs -3 vs. Eagles
5- Texans -4 vs. Cardinals
There you have it for Week Twelve. For more trends, notes and Nuggets on the SEC, College Football, and the NFL , check out my podcast- The Odds Couple on the GrindCityMedia App and GrindCityMedia YouTube Channel LIVE every Thursday at 2pm. Or you can listen to the podcast and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. You can follow me on Twitter @thefishnation, on Instagram @thefishnation_, and on Facebook. You can also email me with any comments or questions at rfischer@grizzlies.com.
Enjoy the weekend!
